The Nintendo Thread of Existential Doom

[WisteriaHysteria]

I believe 100% that they were going to make a 4K Switch, but they cancelled/delayed indefinitely those plans once the pandemic happened and everyone's supply chains collapsed, and that the OLED switch is just a placeholder.

 

[RT-55J]

It's worth noting that "we have no plans" is not mutually exclusive with "we had plans, but they have been delayed indefinitely."

 

[Becksworth]

Yeah, another possible explanation I saw that seem feasible was that some devs may have "soft dev kits" in that they were told ballpark figures for a possible future 4k device they then replicated with off the shelf parts to get started on secret future products of their own whose releases are also still TBA.

It would be silly to assume Nintendo doesn't have something in the R&D pipeline, but if they are directly to communicating with investors to explain to them that no 4K device is out of R&D and into early production stages, then it's going to be awhile before we see anything with more horsepower.

 

[estragon]

I think at the end of the day the question boils down to "is it more likely that a major corporation is putting out misleading PR, or is it more likely than a reporter with a solid record is now suddenly fabricating 'bogus' stories," and for me at least I trust Takashi Mochizuki way more than Nintendo PR putting out messaging for their investors.

 

[Becksworth]

While with regular PR I would generally agree, Investor Relations giving purposefully misleading information seems like a dangerous game, hence the skepticism of the Bloomberg article by some corners of the internet.

 

[estragon]

I think it's simultaneously true that Nintendo's weasel worded PR release is technically correct, and also that Mochizuki was not fabricating a bogus story where he is just making up 11 different sources that never existed, which would be a fairly serious accusation to make against a journalist.

 

[Becksworth]

Let me clarify my skepticism is of the "I doubt we will see any Switch revisions aside from the OLED model anytime in the next year or so." variety and not the "This reporter is a liar." variety.

 

[Positronic Brain]

Let me clarify my skepticism is of the "I doubt we will see any Switch revisions aside from the OLED model anytime in the next year or so." variety and not the "This reporter is a liar." variety.

I agre with your skepticism, but I do out of the major supply issues electronic factories are having instead of Nintendo not planning this. It's been 5 years, Nintendo is due for a major hadware revision and I'd bet my cookies that if it hadn't been for the silicon shortages there would have been official word on that by now.

 

[fanboymaster]

I'd suspect by March of 2023 there will be a launch date for a Switch successor, that it will be what these devkits are for, and that it will be perfectly true that this is not a switch with 4k capability because whatever it is they would consider it to be distinct hardware. That statement gives them plenty of wiggle room to say something that is not technically incorrect.

 

[WisteriaHysteria]

The thing about "for investors" to me is that, investors want only one thing - for their money to increase. If the general public thinks that a major hardware update is on the horizon, they'll stop buying the current hardware or a minor revision like the OLED-Switch because they don't want to immediately turn around and have their money wasted by their brand new machine being made obsolete. Investors are fine with being lied to as long as their money piles get bigger and they don't eventually get left holding a bag. But they won't be happy if Nintendo misses its sales forecasts because everyone is suddenly gunshy about buying hardware in the here and now. This can be "for investors" as in it's messaging that will make them happy, even if it's a lie. The two ideas are not mutually exclusive.

 

[Ludendorkk]

Reminder that Nintendo lied about the existence of the New 3DS like two weeks before it was revealed

But curse Mochizuki for reigniting the Switch Pro Discourse

 

[4-So]

I just want something that looks great on my TV and doesn't chug. I don't care what they call it.

 

[LBD_Nytetrayn]

Maybe Nintendo PR is deliberately kept out of the loop until such a time as plausible deniability is no longer needed.

 

[Patrick]

The most likely scenario is that Nintendo is working on new hardware, but it is not a "Switch" and it's not going to be released any time soon. They need to deny the rumors, because it will hurt sales of the current models.

 

[Phantoon]

They have to be working on Switch's successor, there's no point in doing a Switch Pro this late in its life. They're not going to announce that ahead of time.

 

[Sarge]

Yeah, it wouldn't at all surprise me if there were plans for a system that would scale to 4K, but the pandemic and chip shortages caused it to slip. And sales are still so good on the Switch that it really doesn't make sense to do anything other than the actual full-fledged Switch successor. And I'm really happy about that - I'm not a huge fan of mid-gen refreshes, even if that's likely to be the norm going forward.

 

[WisteriaHysteria]

I still think a mid-gen refresh is more likely than you guys are giving credit for. People in general are more and more hesitant to upgrade their expensive electronics and throw the still perfectly usable old machines away. That's why the PS5 and the XSX both are emphasizing free cross-gen upgrades for last-gen games, and designed the architecture of their machines around making it very easy for devs to design games for both last gen and current gen at the same time. If there's gonna be a Super Switch, I'd expect to see something similar where there's full backward compatibility, there's a system for upgrading games from last gen to fancy new gen, and the architecture is largely still the same just souped up for dev purposes.

 

[Phantoon]

The Switch is four years old in March, it's getting on in its life. It just seems a bit late in the day for a refresh. If they were doing it, it would be the OLED model.

I can see Switch 2 being back compatible, allegedly Nintendo have been applying for patents for AI upscaling on Tensor cores.

 

[Sarge]

I don't even know, honestly. I hope not, and maybe I'm just wishcasting that there isn't a mid-gen refresh. But yeah, it turns five this coming March, so it's definitely getting on up there. But it looks like there was a four-year gap from DS to DSi and 3DS to New 3DS, and with extended console cycles, it very well may still happen.

 

[WisteriaHysteria]

The other thing to me is, Nintendo very clearly does not care about bleeding edge graphics, and neither do most of their gamers. Just good enough to get by. Like, yes, the Switch hardware is getting older, and I would happily take a 4K fancy-pants Switch b/c I have the disposable income and the TV hardware to make use of it. But most people at this point still don't, and tbh I'm largely happy with all the games I'm playing on it right now and don't really need anything better anyways. Because the games I play on switch are either games with abstracted art style that work well even w/o a lot of horsepower (i.e. most first party Nintendo games) or similarly designed multi-platform games like your Ace Attorney Chronicles. If it's a multiplatform game where the graphics really really matter, I'm playing in on my PS5 or PC instead. So the *need* for a whole new console over a refresh just isn't the same versus the other console makers that rely much more on cutting edge graphics to entice gamers.

 

[Sarge]

I still feel like one of the real appeals of the Switch, though, is getting some of those AAA games in a portable form factor. As the current generation goes on, those are going to be harder and harder to implement on the current architecture, even with a marginal refresh. I do think whatever comes out, Switch Pro or Switch 2, will be backwards-compatible, regardless. They'll probably stay in the same family of chips, and it's a pretty significant draw for both PS5 and XSX that they have BC.

 

[ArugulaZ]

Nintendo's product life cycles are wildly variant. Sometimes you get the standard five years (N64, Cube, Wii U), but sometimes it stretches out a lot longer than that. The 3DS was a sales disappointment, but what was the lifespan of that system? Eight, nine years? I'm hoping Nintendo will stretch out the Switch for that long, and not cut it loose prematurely like the Wii.

I think the success of the Steam Deck will ultimately determine Nintendo's next move. If it fails, they'll milk the Switch for a few more years. If it becomes competitive, Nintendo will be forced to release a next generation system, or at least a half-step upgrade like the New 3DS. I think developers are getting a little annoyed with the limitations of the Switch, and if the Steam Deck takes off, Nintendo will be forced to address their system's shortcomings.

 

[Patrick]

Good point, GBA got cut short by the PSP.

 

[Phantoon]

I don't think the Steam Deck is really competition at all outside of enthusiast circles. While it's actually great value for what it is it's hugely more expensive than the Switch. I'll bet the average man on the street doesn't have a clue what one is either

 

[Becksworth]

Yeah, I don't think Valve has the capacity to compete with Nintendo on a purely manufacturing/distribution level, considering Steamdecks are being sold via direct buy and are backlogged well into next year. The bigger threat to Nintendo would be if Steamdeck works as a proof of concept enough to get more manufacturers into the handheld PC space, but that's more a long term issue.

 

[WisteriaHysteria]

Lending more credence to the theory that the OLED Switch was a pandemic pivot away from original plans of a 4K model that got scrapped b/c of the microchip shortage:

Teardown Suggests The Switch OLED Dock Is 4K 60fps-Ready And 'Future Proof'

Update: Realtek chip inside dock advertised as "4K UHD multimedia SoC"

www.nintendolife.com

 

[Becksworth]

Not to rain on speculation, but is there a significant price difference between 1.4 and 2.0 hdmi components? At a casual glance 1.4 cables are cheaper, but that appears to be more a clearance pricing situation. Could just be 2.0 components were what the manufacturers had on hand.

 

[Becksworth]

In other news, Flip Grips don't fit properly on the OLED model. Pre-order cancelled (just kidding, couldn't get a pre-order).

 

[Phantoon]

Not to rain on speculation, but is there a significant price difference between 1.4 and 2.0 hdmi components? At a casual glance 1.4 cables are cheaper, but that appears to be more a clearance pricing situation. Could just be 2.0 components were what the manufacturers had on hand.

Generally, if you're going to make millions of something, even a 1 cent saving is worth it. Making it support hdmi 2.0 does imply that they've future proofed it.

 

[Sprite]

Oh geez, if I’m understanding the Animal Crossing Direct correctly, the Switch Online+ membership is more than twice the cost of the vanilla. $50 for an individual and $80 for a family plan

It sounds like the plan is to also include paid DLC like the Happy Home Designer expansion. I have no idea if you permanently have that DLC or if it goes away when the membership does. Either way, it’s a spicy, spicy ask for not a lot of added value.