Finally built my Fallout deck:
Still debating on whether I want to use Dogmeat or Preston Garvey as my commander.
Still debating on whether I want to use Dogmeat or Preston Garvey as my commander.
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We're all just here for the deep Urza lore - Talking about Magic: The Gathering!
- Thread starter Bulgakov
- Start date
Interesting. I was looking at premiere draft, where Azorius is 54.3% and Izzet is 54%. I'm more inclined to trust the premiere numbers since they have a much bigger sample size there (436k games vs 58k in traditional).
I'm not seeing what you're seeing for UB + splash in either format, though? The site is showing me 56.8% for that particular combo in Bo3, which is the lowest of the Two-color + Splash decks.
I'm not seeing what you're seeing for UB + splash in either format, though? The site is showing me 56.8% for that particular combo in Bo3, which is the lowest of the Two-color + Splash decks.
Still thousands of games of trad draft played with rares, and it's a lot closer to real magic than Bo1: sideboards, no hand smoother, actually have to be on the draw at least once a match. You never get a deck that just looses because it was put on the draw three times skewing numbers (why the fuck arena allows that is beyond me, #1 thing I would change in matchmaking is 50% on play/draw per deck because fuck those drafts).
Even if most of my grinding is Bo1 Trad draft is much better data.
Even if most of my grinding is Bo1 Trad draft is much better data.
I agree that Bo3 is Magic as it was designed to be played, and it's how I play nearly all of my Magic (Historic Brawl is still fun sometimes), but I don't think that's really relevant here. In terms of pure data, isn't a set of almost 8x the size going to be a more accurate result? The presence of sideboarding or a hand smoother isn't going to change the sheer number of games played. (If any data scientists are reading this and want to chime in to confirm or disprove my hypothesis here, please do!)
I mean, they allow it because happens in real life all the time? It's not hard or uncommon to lose a die roll three times in a row. If you want Arena to be as close to paper Magic as possible, you have to accept this is part of variance too.
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Bo3 you'd get a second game on the play and then when you're on the draw again you have more info and can sideboard. Worlds of difference.
The hand smoother just let you flat out cut a land, for instance. Way more disruptive to the data than a smaller but still quite large data-set.
The hand smoother just let you flat out cut a land, for instance. Way more disruptive to the data than a smaller but still quite large data-set.
Unrelated to this conversation, but: I've basically replace Hired Claw with Burnout Bashtronaut in all of my flavors of Red Mice Aggro, and I've actually been really pleased with that change. Menace is super relevant in this meta, and once you hit max speed, it becomes quite a deadly target for your Monstrous Rages. Basically just serving as another source of double strike along with Manifold Mouse. I also run 1 copy of Hazoret in Mono-Red specifically, who has been a mixed bag, but honestly it's still won me some games too.
CRATERHOOF BEHEMOTH IS BEING REPRINTED INTO STANDARD
THIS IS NOT A DRILL
If I'm gonna probably quit Magic in a couple of months, they sure found a way to get me to stick around until that happens. If I don't get to Hoof someone at prerelease, I will cry. (Also, sweet new Magali Villeneuve art.)
I played in the Spotlight Series today here in Denver. I ended up going 3-3 and had a lot of fun. I played a good handful of Sealed Best-of-3 in preparation for it this weekend, and I have to say this is the most enjoyable set for the Sealed format in... possibly ever? I've never been looking forward to getting to play a Sealed event other than an actual Pre-release until playing with Dragonstorm. Like, I'm going back to the convention again tomorrow just because I want to play a (smaller) Sealed event again.
To me it has so much density to the deckbuilding that it becomes a skill test for both Limited gameplay, and deck building skill, in a way that Draft doesn't cover. Mainly because with Draft you get to choose your mana options a lot more deliberately. But in Sealed since it is a Wedge set and the Limited mana fixing is Very Good, it's this kinda complex equation between figuring out how you much you can get away with and also not obliterate your mana base.
To me it has so much density to the deckbuilding that it becomes a skill test for both Limited gameplay, and deck building skill, in a way that Draft doesn't cover. Mainly because with Draft you get to choose your mana options a lot more deliberately. But in Sealed since it is a Wedge set and the Limited mana fixing is Very Good, it's this kinda complex equation between figuring out how you much you can get away with and also not obliterate your mana base.
I've been really enjoying the draft format so far. For the first time in a long while, all of the archetypes feel balanced and playable. Abzan is maybe the least powerful in my experience to date, but only because something's got to be the weakest - it's not bad by any means, just feels like it doesn't necessarily come together as easily as some of the other clans. This is definitely the most fun I've had drafting in well over a year.
Also, while I sadly didn't open one at my prerelease, I did get to draft Craterhoof Behemoth yesterday. I went to six wins, two of which were on the back of the Hoof itself. The first time I got to cast it was possibly the saddest Hoof I've ever seen -- I'd gotten my opponent down to one life, they wiped the board, and then I cast it as a lonely 6/6 with haste to end the game. But the second time was a proper Craterhoof ending: I had four or five creatures on board, they had a few tiny blockers, and I got to swing in for a bajillion damage.
One of my losses in that draft was against none other than Eken, who at the time was mythic #3. I believe they're currently #1. You're welcome, Eken.
Also, while I sadly didn't open one at my prerelease, I did get to draft Craterhoof Behemoth yesterday. I went to six wins, two of which were on the back of the Hoof itself. The first time I got to cast it was possibly the saddest Hoof I've ever seen -- I'd gotten my opponent down to one life, they wiped the board, and then I cast it as a lonely 6/6 with haste to end the game. But the second time was a proper Craterhoof ending: I had four or five creatures on board, they had a few tiny blockers, and I got to swing in for a bajillion damage.
One of my losses in that draft was against none other than Eken, who at the time was mythic #3. I believe they're currently #1. You're welcome, Eken.
I think most good decks should be an enemy color pair base, rather than a wedge. Usually you'd ideally splash some cards from both aligned clan unless you're just in the perfect draft seat for 3 colors. Power is absurdly important and the multicolor cards are very strong.
In that context UG is the best, WR is the worst and while everything is playable aggro is far harder to build than midrange tempo or control. It requires very specific uncommons, multiple rares or just absurd hands to win.
Abzan gets the good green cards and I think is the best deck *use* white's actual good cards (which are the removal and card draw). Black isn't amazing but dragon's prey and caustic exhale mean it's hard to have outright bad cards when that's one of your colors.
In that context UG is the best, WR is the worst and while everything is playable aggro is far harder to build than midrange tempo or control. It requires very specific uncommons, multiple rares or just absurd hands to win.
Abzan gets the good green cards and I think is the best deck *use* white's actual good cards (which are the removal and card draw). Black isn't amazing but dragon's prey and caustic exhale mean it's hard to have outright bad cards when that's one of your colors.
This reflects what I've learned from playing a lot of Sealed as well. It works out best if you can stick to 2 primary colors and then it Gets Interesting if your mana base lets you splash for other stuff while still providing one or both of your primary colors.
I think Green anything is generally gonna be stronger than nothing with Green, but in Draft at least you can pick up a strong RWUB combination while everyone fights over the Green cards. In Sealed it was pretty significantly obvious that Jeskai and Mardu were weaker (unless like you said you get a nice curve and powerful rares or lots of the uncommons).
Fake Edit: Champion of Dusan and Sagu Pummeler at Common are my biggest argument for why Green is just a bit better. Both of them trade with a ton of creatures, and then they both have useful Renew abilities! There's really not much at Common that has more than 4 toughness! It's crazy.
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Yep, that's how the set was designed to be drafted (source: Weekly Magic after the reveal stream, I think). Starting in an enemy pair leaves you room to see which of the two corresponding clans is open, if any. I'm currently in the middle of a draft with a deck that started out solidly W/B and took a while to settle into Mardu or Abzan. My P1P1 was Betor, so I was hoping for Abzan, but it ended up turning into a really solid Mardu deck. Went 2-0 yesterday before I had to go take care of some chores, looking forward to getting back into it today.
Even above common, 4 kills a ton of things, 5 or 6 hits almost everything. The big break point is between 2 and 3 damage.
https://bsky.app/profile/sierkovitz.bsky.social/post/3llm4xlmo6k2b
But there are a **ton** of counters flying around.