Finally built my Fallout deck:
Still debating on whether I want to use Dogmeat or Preston Garvey as my commander.
Still debating on whether I want to use Dogmeat or Preston Garvey as my commander.
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We're all just here for the deep Urza lore - Talking about Magic: The Gathering!
- Thread starter Bulgakov
- Start date
Interesting. I was looking at premiere draft, where Azorius is 54.3% and Izzet is 54%. I'm more inclined to trust the premiere numbers since they have a much bigger sample size there (436k games vs 58k in traditional).
I'm not seeing what you're seeing for UB + splash in either format, though? The site is showing me 56.8% for that particular combo in Bo3, which is the lowest of the Two-color + Splash decks.
I'm not seeing what you're seeing for UB + splash in either format, though? The site is showing me 56.8% for that particular combo in Bo3, which is the lowest of the Two-color + Splash decks.
Still thousands of games of trad draft played with rares, and it's a lot closer to real magic than Bo1: sideboards, no hand smoother, actually have to be on the draw at least once a match. You never get a deck that just looses because it was put on the draw three times skewing numbers (why the fuck arena allows that is beyond me, #1 thing I would change in matchmaking is 50% on play/draw per deck because fuck those drafts).
Even if most of my grinding is Bo1 Trad draft is much better data.
Even if most of my grinding is Bo1 Trad draft is much better data.
I agree that Bo3 is Magic as it was designed to be played, and it's how I play nearly all of my Magic (Historic Brawl is still fun sometimes), but I don't think that's really relevant here. In terms of pure data, isn't a set of almost 8x the size going to be a more accurate result? The presence of sideboarding or a hand smoother isn't going to change the sheer number of games played. (If any data scientists are reading this and want to chime in to confirm or disprove my hypothesis here, please do!)
I mean, they allow it because happens in real life all the time? It's not hard or uncommon to lose a die roll three times in a row. If you want Arena to be as close to paper Magic as possible, you have to accept this is part of variance too.
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Bo3 you'd get a second game on the play and then when you're on the draw again you have more info and can sideboard. Worlds of difference.
The hand smoother just let you flat out cut a land, for instance. Way more disruptive to the data than a smaller but still quite large data-set.
The hand smoother just let you flat out cut a land, for instance. Way more disruptive to the data than a smaller but still quite large data-set.
Unrelated to this conversation, but: I've basically replace Hired Claw with Burnout Bashtronaut in all of my flavors of Red Mice Aggro, and I've actually been really pleased with that change. Menace is super relevant in this meta, and once you hit max speed, it becomes quite a deadly target for your Monstrous Rages. Basically just serving as another source of double strike along with Manifold Mouse. I also run 1 copy of Hazoret in Mono-Red specifically, who has been a mixed bag, but honestly it's still won me some games too.
