Avatar: The Way of Water - predict its success!

[Olli]

Avatar, the 2009 movie, is the top worldwide box office earner, and number #4 in US domestic rankings. It wasn't universally beloved by critics, but it was accepted as what it was: a technological masterpiece and a no-fluff science fiction action-adventure with outstanding visual design. It ushered an era of 3D movies. After well over a decade, the sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water is finally about to be released in a few weeks.

Here's the question: how well do you think the sequel will do compared to the original? Given a few months in the theatres, will A:tWoW be doing better, about the same, or worse than the original?

 

[Vaeran]

The original Avatar is the highest grossing movie of all time and I've never met a single fan of it.

 

[Octopus Prime]

Every time I see a trailer for that movie in the theater, there's a resounding "Why?" from the audience.

 

[Patrick]

I feel like it's bad to hope a movie does poorly, but I do hope this does poorly.

 

[estragon]

i do not understand why anyone would feel so negatively about this

no idea if it will succeed, but like the first movie it will probably be better than most of the big budget slop that's come out in the intervening decade

hope it does well, but maybe the moment has passed

 

[Patrick]

I just didn't like the first movie.

 

[RT-55J]

I hope it does well enough for all 5 movies to get made, but somehow still have zero lasting impact on fan culture.

 

[FelixSH]

The first movie felt like the very definition of "standard, cliched action-adventure movie", felt way too long and bored me. Especially the battle at the end, took forever.

I generally hope that things that don't hurt anyone do well. So, I'll ignore it, but people put a lot of effort into this, so I hope it is successful.

Oh, my only real gripe with both movies is that I have to specify, when talking about one of the best cartoons of all time.

 

[JBear]

Oh, my only real gripe with both movies is that I have to specify, when talking about one of the best cartoons of all time.

^
I only clicked on this thread because I thought it was the cartoon movie or whatever.

 

[Phantoon]

i do not understand why anyone would feel so negatively about this

no idea if it will succeed, but like the first movie it will probably be better than most of the big budget slop that's come out in the intervening decade

hope it does well, but maybe the moment has passed

This is me. It's something vaguely original by an immensely talented film maker that isn't comic book crap. I actually like the Marvel films in general, but pine for a time when there were things other than comic book films in the cinema. Maybe Avatar can be the hope for original content.

The original Avatar film was easily my least favourite Cameron film but it's still better than 95% of the rest of your average cinema, and it's ambitious as hell.

 

[Olli]

This is me. It's something vaguely original by an immensely talented film maker that isn't comic book crap. I actually like the Marvel films in general, but pine for a time when there were things other than comic book films in the cinema. Maybe Avatar can be the hope for original content.

The original Avatar film was easily my least favourite Cameron film but it's still better than 95% of the rest of your average cinema, and it's ambitious as hell.

I guess one relevant question is: regardless of the merit of the original, will the sequel provide a significant amount of something new, or is it just more of the same? Based on the trailer, I can't quite tell. And if it's "just" more of the same, is that still a fine outcome?

 

[Paul le Fou]

The original was just another somewhat take on the last of the mohicans/last samurai/white savior trope and I found it pretty tiresome overall, despite being very competently made (and having one of the only instances in recorded history of good 3D in a movie), so if the story in this one is even a little more original and Cameron doesn't shit the bed with the general filmmaking, I don't think it'll be too hard to improve on the original.

 

[Phantoon]

There was a lot of backstory and world building written for the original which didn't make its way on-screen and I anticipate will show up here.

Also, Jim Cameron has a bit of form with sequels.

 

[Felicia]

I'm just curious if the sequel will in some way adress the "why didn't they just bombard the planet from orbit" question. I mean, they'd have to, right? Not saying that there aren't good answers to the question, but I still wonder what answer they will choose.

 

[Octopus Prime]

Or open up trade negotiations, since wasn’t that the reason the Avatars existed at all?

 

[Voncaster]

The original Avatar is the highest grossing movie of all time and I've never met a single fan of it.

I'm a big fan of Avatar. Its the movie I've seen the most times in the theater: 3x in its original run and 1x in its re-release.

I think the sequel will perform well (3rd or 4th all time). I don't think it will match the original's box office.

The new trailer looks very good to me. I'm very excited for Way of the Water.

 

[BEAT]

Avatar 2 will do exactly as well as Morbious.

 

[Johnny Unusual]

I think it's going to do OK here but not a record shatterer (or not one of the interesting records. Like maybe top 6 of all sci-fi movies released in December in the US or something with qualifiers. Still impressive but not super impressive). James Cameron is going to complain about it or something that people didn't get whatever painfully not subtle message the movie had. But it will do very well internationally. Cameron beefs it with dialogue and his story telling isn't subtle but he's a talented movie maker of spectacle and that tends to travel well.

 

[MetManMas]

I totally get the apathy towards the film, but I think the big questions are "What will it be releasing against?" and "How will the movie do worldwide?". I mean, a lot of people were skeptical of Avatar '09 but then it went on to be a big box office hit in spite of its dumb tropey story.

Flashy set pieces and art direction can go a long way towards getting people into the theater, as can a holiday release.

 

[BEAT]

I am going to Morb.

 

[BEAT]

"It is Morbin time" is a thing that The blue fella will say in Avatar 2: wetway.

 

[BEAT]

Also the end credits will reveal that the actual name of the movie was Wetway, not "Way of water". Sort of like how they changed the name of falcon and the winter soldier to "Captain America and the winter solder" in the last episode.

 

[Voncaster]

The original Avatar is the highest grossing movie of all time and I've never met a single fan of it.

Every time I see a trailer for that movie in the theater, there's a resounding "Why?" from the audience.

I feel like it's bad to hope a movie does poorly, but I do hope this does poorly.

I find the first Avatar to be a sublime sci-fi action movie. I find the visuals, both the design and execution, to be a significantly better than other CGI heavy action movies. But I seem to be in the minority here.

The way Talking Time feels about Avatar is how I feel about the latest Marvel movie.

 

[BEAT]

Fuck marvel too.

 

[Vaeran]

The way you Talking Time feels about Avatar is how I feel about the latest Marvel movie.

I don't feel any way about Avatar; I've never seen it. I was stating an anecdotal fact.

 

[Büge]

The original Avatar is the highest grossing movie of all time

Unless you count Gone With the Wind.

 

[Patrick]

I did not mean to knock people who enjoyed the first movie. I hope you all enjoy the second one just as much.

 

[gogglebob]

Unless you count Gone With the Wind.

Ah. Another elemental-themed film.

 

[ThornGhost]

Avatar is the very definition of broad-but-shallow appeal. I don't mean to say the film is shallow, I mean to say that there are few people who are more than passively interested in it.

Our current pop culture climate seems to focus on "success" as being linked to an invested "fandom" of cosplayers, toy buyers and digital ink spellers. It's obvious that Avatar has very little of that. But is that bad for the film's financials?

To be honest, I'm not sure. Movies were in a very different place in 2009. In many ways, they were the zenith of aughties pop culture. A thing carried weight simply by being a "movie". Throw in a big budget, impressive 3D technology and a few famous names and you had yourself a hit.

Now? Movies are not cool. Theaters are dying. The pre-eminant video media is either the prestige streaming show or Tik Toks and who's to say which.

If anything, Avatar is hampered by being a movie. Its shallow appeal may not bring people to the theater. I'll be very interested to see which. From home.

 

[Adrenaline]

I don't hate Avatar. I'm sure the new one will do fine but it's not going to top literally the highest grossing movie of all time.